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October 28, 2004
GDP and the Election
Tomorrow morning the first reading of GDP growth for the 3rd quarter will hit the wires. A consensus of economists are forecasting a 4.3% annualized growth rate while Briefing is forecasting a scorching 5.0% rate. These are high estimates. Since the release is the Friday before the election, the number could definitely have some political implications.
Truthfully though it might be a wash. I think the likely scenario is growth coming in at a strong 3-4% range, followed by headlines in the press such as: "Economy Grows in 3Q... Yet Slower than Economists Expected". Both sides could use this as ammunition and it won't swing voters one way or the other. Tune in tomorrow morning to see how this plays out.
Posted by Peter Mork at October 28, 2004 11:15 AM
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